這兩星期，組合還是沒有變動，還是持有富豪產業信託(1881)及理文手袋(1488)。
上個禮拜，理文手袋(1488)同業時代集團(1023)公佈業績，可以預示到公司的利潤率是如何。根據分部資料，可以見到手袋分部的利潤率如下述，可以見稅前淨利率以每年1%下降:
所以筆者下降了自己的預測，下半年的毛利預期由25%，降至23%，即下半年盈利由11.1仙，減至9.5仙，盈利由17.1仙減至15.6仙:
合理估值仍是以市盈率8倍至10倍，所以合理價調低至在1.25至1.56元間，但現價仍處於合理價中低限，但不算過份超值。
昨日，有位網友PLNY，發表他對業務的評論，節錄如下，跟大家分享下:
「1. 由通告到睇，1488既客其實1 D 都唔忠誠,頭3個大客可以話係年年轉，但咁未必係壞事，做得export D客一定年年落order時捽低個價，要keep 住個margin公司唯有年年都screen 新客，notice 上面講既effective management 同cost control，就係咁解 (加埋谷大D單，用盡capacity, margin 自然靚仔).
% % % %
HKD'000 06/2012 06/2011 HKD'000 12/2011 12/2010
Customer A 90,186 18.6% - 0.0% Customer A 114,414 13.1% - 0.0%
Customer B 75,906 15.7% 53,875 14.5% Customer B - 0.0% 142,414 16.7%
Customer C - 0.0% 46,933 12.7% Customer C - 0.0% 88,267 10.3%
*- = not exceed 10% of sales
2. Italy 的確係growth engine, 而且應該keep 到, 點解?
我上網搵唔到係邊個意大利客既資料，但從track record 睇，1488 supply 既segment 應該從luxury space 入面high growth 既 middle tier, 佢地supply 過俾以下既客，可以見到佢地不斷upgrade D 客去luxury segment, 其實並唔簡單。
% % % %
HKD'000 06/2012 06/2011 HKD'000 12/2011 12/2010
HK 12,950 2.7% 9,939 2.7% HK 28,132 3.2% 19,461 2.3%
PRC 15,481 3.2% 8,884 2.4% PRC 32,084 3.7% 12,392 1.5%
USA 175,838 36.3% 157,829 42.6% USA 368,867 42.2% 457,729 53.6%
Canada 17,153 3.5% 20,649 5.6% Canada 46,122 5.3% 31,927 3.7%
Netherlands 30,196 6.2% 26,294 7.1% Netherlands 53,969 6.2% 76,782 9.0%
Italy 107,420 22.2% 24,785 6.7% Italy 97,238 11.1% 65,380 7.7%
UK 16,765 3.5% 25,159 6.8% UK 43,566 5.0% 47,967 5.6%
Germany 13,438 2.8% 7,660 2.1% Germany 27,036 3.1% 14,390 1.7%
Other European Countries 34,947 7.2% 30,261 8.2% Other European Countries 52,438 6.0% 30,023 3.5%
South American countries 16,753 3.5% 21,663 5.8% South American countries 40,933 4.7% 28,914 3.4%
Other Asian countries 43,943 9.1% 37,522 10.1% Other Asian countries 83,430 9.5% 68,574 8.0%
484,884 100.0% 370,645 100.0% 873,815 100.0% 853,539 100.0%
佢地既客同searchable last shipment date
Possible buyers Brands included BL Date
Sherson Group Inc. Nine West, Bandolino, Enzo Angiolini, Anne Klein, easyspirit, Nine West American Vintage, Nine & Co., Boutique 9, Anne Klein Sport, Circa Joan & David, Mootsies Toosies, Rachel Roy, Jones New York 3/12/2007
Catini Bags (Subsid of Company) re-sell to Target 28/12/2007
Diesel USA 21/11/2007
Tory Burch 24/10/2012
Nine West 2009
Lululemon 24/12/2012
佢地core client 係美國，我估其實應該係Tory Burch, Burch 係一間high growth 既private company, 好在人地兩公婆鬧離婚，所以都有D financial 睇，上年Tory 估緊topline grow 50% [http://www.privco.com/tory-burch-and-ex-husband-chris-burch-bury-hatchet-in-812-million-deal
], 1488 拍到呢個碼頭點會同1023 一樣命運? (coach d sales growth 差九條街，1023... 唉...仲要咁高調話俾人知? ???????????)
4. substantial shareholder DJE 係real money manager (not hedge fund) 我鐘意<3 <3，1488應該都係俾呢個fund hold 住 ，呢個fund仲hold 住理文化工(746), 同理文D management 做DD 既時候，會唔會熟D?又會係業績前狂入? 有無被人hint 過? 反正我信了~~~
5. 最後，留意成1.56%既街貨都比timber hill hold住 (應該是dark pool ) 」
講到底，買股都是靠自己分析，以上資料僅作參考之用。
上個禮拜，理文手袋(1488)同業時代集團(1023)公佈業績，可以預示到公司的利潤率是如何。根據分部資料，可以見到手袋分部的利潤率如下述，可以見稅前淨利率以每年1%下降:
所以筆者下降了自己的預測，下半年的毛利預期由25%，降至23%，即下半年盈利由11.1仙，減至9.5仙，盈利由17.1仙減至15.6仙:
合理估值仍是以市盈率8倍至10倍，所以合理價調低至在1.25至1.56元間，但現價仍處於合理價中低限，但不算過份超值。
昨日，有位網友PLNY，發表他對業務的評論，節錄如下，跟大家分享下:
「1. 由通告到睇，1488既客其實1 D 都唔忠誠,頭3個大客可以話係年年轉，但咁未必係壞事，做得export D客一定年年落order時捽低個價，要keep 住個margin公司唯有年年都screen 新客，notice 上面講既effective management 同cost control，就係咁解 (加埋谷大D單，用盡capacity, margin 自然靚仔).
% % % %
HKD'000 06/2012 06/2011 HKD'000 12/2011 12/2010
Customer A 90,186 18.6% - 0.0% Customer A 114,414 13.1% - 0.0%
Customer B 75,906 15.7% 53,875 14.5% Customer B - 0.0% 142,414 16.7%
Customer C - 0.0% 46,933 12.7% Customer C - 0.0% 88,267 10.3%
*- = not exceed 10% of sales
2. Italy 的確係growth engine, 而且應該keep 到, 點解?
我上網搵唔到係邊個意大利客既資料，但從track record 睇，1488 supply 既segment 應該從luxury space 入面high growth 既 middle tier, 佢地supply 過俾以下既客，可以見到佢地不斷upgrade D 客去luxury segment, 其實並唔簡單。
% % % %
HKD'000 06/2012 06/2011 HKD'000 12/2011 12/2010
HK 12,950 2.7% 9,939 2.7% HK 28,132 3.2% 19,461 2.3%
PRC 15,481 3.2% 8,884 2.4% PRC 32,084 3.7% 12,392 1.5%
USA 175,838 36.3% 157,829 42.6% USA 368,867 42.2% 457,729 53.6%
Canada 17,153 3.5% 20,649 5.6% Canada 46,122 5.3% 31,927 3.7%
Netherlands 30,196 6.2% 26,294 7.1% Netherlands 53,969 6.2% 76,782 9.0%
Italy 107,420 22.2% 24,785 6.7% Italy 97,238 11.1% 65,380 7.7%
UK 16,765 3.5% 25,159 6.8% UK 43,566 5.0% 47,967 5.6%
Germany 13,438 2.8% 7,660 2.1% Germany 27,036 3.1% 14,390 1.7%
Other European Countries 34,947 7.2% 30,261 8.2% Other European Countries 52,438 6.0% 30,023 3.5%
South American countries 16,753 3.5% 21,663 5.8% South American countries 40,933 4.7% 28,914 3.4%
Other Asian countries 43,943 9.1% 37,522 10.1% Other Asian countries 83,430 9.5% 68,574 8.0%
484,884 100.0% 370,645 100.0% 873,815 100.0% 853,539 100.0%
佢地既客同searchable last shipment date
Possible buyers Brands included BL Date
Sherson Group Inc. Nine West, Bandolino, Enzo Angiolini, Anne Klein, easyspirit, Nine West American Vintage, Nine & Co., Boutique 9, Anne Klein Sport, Circa Joan & David, Mootsies Toosies, Rachel Roy, Jones New York 3/12/2007
Catini Bags (Subsid of Company) re-sell to Target 28/12/2007
Diesel USA 21/11/2007
Tory Burch 24/10/2012
Nine West 2009
Lululemon 24/12/2012
佢地core client 係美國，我估其實應該係Tory Burch, Burch 係一間high growth 既private company, 好在人地兩公婆鬧離婚，所以都有D financial 睇，上年Tory 估緊topline grow 50% [http://www.privco.com/tory-burch-and-ex-husband-chris-burch-bury-hatchet-in-812-million-deal
], 1488 拍到呢個碼頭點會同1023 一樣命運? (coach d sales growth 差九條街，1023... 唉...仲要咁高調話俾人知? ???????????)
4. substantial shareholder DJE 係real money manager (not hedge fund) 我鐘意<3 <3，1488應該都係俾呢個fund hold 住 ，呢個fund仲hold 住理文化工(746), 同理文D management 做DD 既時候，會唔會熟D?又會係業績前狂入? 有無被人hint 過? 反正我信了~~~
5. 最後，留意成1.56%既街貨都比timber hill hold住 (應該是dark pool ) 」
講到底，買股都是靠自己分析，以上資料僅作參考之用。